The 30.5% Illusion: Why Polymarket’s Iran-War Odds Are the Real Trade
Polymarket says there’s a 30.5% chance of US-Iran nuclear agreement by 2026....
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Polymarket says there’s a 30.5% chance of US-Iran nuclear agreement by 2026....
Fear
Market Sentiment
Block reward halving event
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Team and early investor shares released
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
92 million ARB released
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Bitcoin Season